Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Dams on the Indian Subcontinent and Kosi River Shifts

A Comparative Study of Data on Earthquakes in the 60-80 and 80-100 Longitude Bands during Pre-Dam and Dam Eras and Connection with the Kosi River Shifts.
R. Ashok Kumar, B.E.,M.E(Power), Negentropist,Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
Copyright © 2013 by Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
Date 19 th September 2008
1. Kosi embanknment breaches and massive eastward shift of 120 kms may have been caused by surges of oscillations of massive uplift in the monsoon and a more massive subsidence in the dry season with a net subsidence in the 80-100 longitude band during the dam era in general and during the past two hydrological years in particular. Study of the earthquake data for 4000 years from -2150 BC to 1949 establishes that there is a net uplift in the pre-dam era in this longitude band forcing Kosi’s westward shifts. During 1950-2007 however there is a net subsidence from monsoon to dry season, but this alternating massive uplift and even more massive subsidence between the seasons puts any structure in the path of the ruptures to crumble. Thus it is reasonable to conclude that the significant alternating surge waves of earthquakes caused by dams on the subcontinent have resulted in Kosi’s massive eastward shifts crumbling any embankments or barrages with loads of silt and water moment changes caused by the great monsoon and the subsequent withdrawals of water for consumptive use. See Figure KOSI. The Table DIS below gives the relevant geophysical and reservoir data. It is to be noted that no such alternations of uplift and subsidence -monsoon to dry season- with a net subsidence is observed in the 100-120 longitude band, even though there is a subsidence in the dry season much less than the uplift in the monsoon. Thus the solution seems to be not dams or embankments but reforestation of the globe and these basins in particular on a war footing. See in connection with reforestation the URL:

Figure DisMH depicts the displacement at the mean hypocentre of the earthquakes in the longitude band 80-100 for each hydrological year between 1 June 1973 to 31 May 2008 and from 1 June 2008 to the last data as of 15th September 2008. Notice the massive 570m subsidence for 2003-04 caused by the 26th December 2004 Andaman Sumatra Great Earthquake of 9.1-9.3 MM and the subsidence persisted at 74 m till 15th September 2008 at the mean hypocentre(16,93.28) when the last data was obtained for this study. Thus the eastward slope in the Kosi basin in particular and of probably of the subcontinent itself as a whole happened from this date. The catastrophe of the massive 120 km shift eastward of Kosi was waiting to happen since! The massive subsidence initiated by the 20th February 2008 7.5MM Major Earthquake at its hypocentre at (2.77,95.96,26km), the 25th February 2008 7.3MM major quake at its hypocentre at (-2.47,99.97,25km) ,20th March 2008 7.2 MM Xinjiang-Xizang Border major earthquake at hypocentre (35.49,81.47,12km), 12th May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake at hypocentre (31,103,10km) and the uplift caused by the 5th August 2008
6 MM earthquake also at almost the same location as the Sichuan quake:

and the ½ km uplift contributed by the 6.8 MM earthquake at Western Xizang at hypocenter (30.89,83.47,12) close to Barakshetra on 25th August 2008 were alternating displacements too much for the embankments and the underlying rocks at locations 26.85,87.15 to 26.72,87.06 to bear. From the relative displacements in 1981 and 1984, it can be inferred that they also contributed to the breaches of the embankments in those years. The Press release of the Barh Mukti Abhiyan(Ref 5) brings out an unprecedented three times increase in the food prone area since 1950:
The team is outraged to report that the government's investment
of over Rs 1600 crores since the early 1950's has helped increase the
flood prone area from 25 lakh hectare during the pre-plan era to over
68.8 lakh hectare today, an unprecedented three-fold increase.
Proposed as temporary measure to control floods in the 1950s and
having had failed on all fronts, the team is bewildered to note that
the business of embankment construction has resumed after a lapse of
17 years with a Rs 792 crores package to tame the Bagmati. There is
another proposal to embank the tributaries of Mahananda at an
estimated cost of Rs 850 crores. Clearly, the lessons in human misery
have not been learnt.

The India subcontinent dams are the cause of the catastrophic effect of the shifts in hypocenters in the two longitude bands 60-80 and 80-100 from the pre-dam era to the dam era. This is because whenever an earthquake occurs, the full force of the cumulative archimedean lever effect of the changes in the contents of all the dams is applied at this one hypocentre. The effect is a massive reversal in tilt between the pre-dam and dam eras between the two longitude bands and consequent unprecedented three times increase in the flood prone area from the pre-dam era to the dam era on the subcontinent. See Table EDTF. See also the massive difference in the displacements of the hypocentres during the dam era in the two longitude bands(Fig ST7308):

1. Ashok Kumar,R. 2004. Earthquakes Caused by Dams in
2. Ashok Kumar,R. 2005. Predicting Earthquakes in
3. Ashok Kumar, R. 2008. Dams, Earthquakes, Cyclones Interconnected in
4. Press Release of Barh Mukti Abhiyan, Patna: Waterwatch digest No 1284, March

1 comment:

hemant said...

This is very bad happening with our country. Kosi river graph is too bad. I feel very haughty.